US equities finished mixed in Tuesday’s trading session but ended off its worst levels. The NASDAQ Composite logged a new record close, supported by strength in Nvidia. May consumer confidence strengthened to 102, beating expectations of 95.7, and April was revised higher to 97.5.1
Consumer confidence improved after three straight months of declines bolstered by a strong labor market. Labor market differential improved, with 37.5% of consumers stating jobs were “plentiful” while 13.5% stated jobs were “hard to get.”1
Equity markets were largely lower on Wednesday as treasury yields continued higher on weak Treasury auctions and hawkish Fed speak. The latest Fed Beige Book showed expansion in most districts, reporting slight to modest growth.2 Retail spending and auto sales were flat, while travel and tourism strengthened.2 The report noted tight credit standards and high rates continued to constrain lending growth. 2
US equities continued declining in Thursday’s trading with Big Tech leading the downside on headlines that the US will delay AI chip sales to the Middle East.3 Markets were pressured by weaker macro data and earnings. The second estimate for Q1 GDP was revised lower to 1.3% q/q, which was weaker than the expectations of 1.6%.4 The report noted a deceleration in real GDP in Q1 driven by a slowdown in consumer spending, exports, and government spending.4 April pending home sales fell 7.7% m/m, missing estimates for a 0.2% increase.5 Elsewhere, Salesforce and software stocks were pressured after Salesforce reported underwhelming guidance, citing macro uncertainty driven by elongated deal cycles, deal compression, and AI prioritization.6
US equities struggled through most of the session on Friday but ended higher, rallying into the close. Friday’s April PCE report supported further evidence of an intact disinflationary trend. April headline and core PCE increased 0.26% m/m and 0.25% m/m, respectively.7 April personal spending growth eased and increased 0.2% below consensus of 0.3% compared to March’s 0.7% increase. 7 Personal income growth increased 0.3% and is in line with estimates. 7 Elsewhere, Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell back into contraction and decreased to 35.4, marking its sixth straight month of contraction and its worst levels since May 2020.8
Sources
- https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-May-2024
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-summary.htm
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/us-officials-rein-in-ai-chip-sales-to-middle-east-by-nvidia-amd
- https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits
- https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-slumped-7-7-in-april
- https://investor.salesforce.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2024/Salesforce-Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2025-Results/default.aspx
- https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2024
- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-business-activity-index-weakens-to-lowest-level-in-four-years-9d41c6fc
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